Live Race Day Record
3 Winners / 5 Races (60%) · 4 of 5 Top-3 Hit
Live picks begin with the Arkansas Derby (March 28, 2026) — our first race after the model launched on March 23. All predictions published before post time. Wood Memorial documented as a miss. Lexington Stakes #1 pick missed; #2 pick finished 2nd. Oaklawn Handicap winner called publicly on NYRA Facebook before post time.
Live Race Day Scoreboard
March 28, 2026
Arkansas Derby (G1)
Oaklawn Park — Hot Springs, AR
Won by 4 lengths
1:49.70
Finished 2nd
Exacta ✓
April 4, 2026
Blue Grass Stakes (G1)
Keeneland — Lexington, KY · 1⅛ miles · 7 horses
Won
Finished 2nd
Wood Memorial (G2)
Aqueduct — Ozone Park, NY · 1⅛ miles · 12 horses
Off the board
April 11, 2026
Lexington Stakes (G3)
Keeneland — Lexington, KY · 1 1/16 miles · 11 horses
Finished 2nd
April 18, 2026
Oaklawn Handicap (G2)
Oaklawn Park — Hot Springs, AR · 1 1/8 miles
Won
Finished 2nd
Finished 3rd
Live Race Day Record: 3 Winners / 5 Races (60%)
4 of 5 races with at least one of our top-3 picks in the top 3 — Renegade (Arkansas Derby), Further Ado (Blue Grass), The Hell We Did 2nd (Lexington), and White Abarrio (Oaklawn Handicap). Wood Memorial was a documented miss. All predictions published before post time.
How verification works
Every live race day pick is published by 10:00 AM CST on race day, before post time. Results are reconciled after the official chart is posted by the track. We publish wins and misses with the same prominence — no retroactive editing of predictions, no hindsight reframing.
- Posted before post time. Every pick is timestamped and published with race-time before the official break.
- Verified after the race. Finish positions, run times, and beaten lengths come from the official chart published by the host track.
- Wins and misses both published. Wood Memorial (Bravaro off the board) and Lexington Stakes (Confessional out of top 3) are documented above with the same visibility as winning calls.
- Public picks vs. internal picks. Where a pick was posted publicly — for example White Abarrio on NYRA Facebook ahead of the 2026 Oaklawn Handicap — that is noted directly on the result card.
Backtest disclosure
Our 10-year Kentucky Derby backtest (2016–2025) hit 10 of 10 winners in the top 3 with +95% simulated ROI on $2 top-pick win wagers. The backtest is methodology validation, not a live track record. It confirms that the model architecture identifies the eventual winner inside its top 3 ranks; it does not guarantee future results.
Live race day picks — the table above — are the only record of the model running in real time against undecided fields. We weight the live record more heavily than the backtest when describing what the model has done.
Reconciliation notes
- Arkansas Derby (Mar 28, 2026) — Renegade #1, Silent Tactic #2 predicted; finished 1st and 2nd respectively. $2 exacta cashed. Run time 1:49.70. Prediction posted March 27, 2026.
- Blue Grass Stakes (Apr 4, 2026) — Further Ado #1 predicted; won. Ottinho #3 predicted; finished 2nd. Prediction posted April 2, 2026.
- Wood Memorial (Apr 4, 2026) — Bravaro #1 predicted; finished off the board. Albus won at 12-1, Right to Party 2nd, Ocelli 3rd. Documented miss. Prediction posted April 2, 2026.
- Lexington Stakes (Apr 11, 2026) — Confessional #1 predicted; off the board. The Hell We Did #2 predicted; finished 2nd. Trendsetter won. Documented miss for #1. Prediction posted April 10, 2026.
- Oaklawn Handicap (Apr 18, 2026) — G2 for older horses, included as a model test against 2025 Triple Crown performers Journalism (2025 Preakness winner) and Sovereignty (2025 Kentucky Derby + Belmont winner). Public pick White Abarrio on NYRA Facebook before post time; won. Internal top-3 (Sovereignty / Journalism / White Abarrio) swept the trifecta. Public comment posted April 18, 2026.
Spot something off?
If any claim above does not match the official chart, email support@triplecrownedge.com with the race and the discrepancy. We correct factual errors quickly and visibly — the whole point of this page is the audit, not the marketing.